Like every forecast a number of assumptions must be made. This is the most contentious presidential race in history and one that will impact the direction of the country and the world. We say that because the views of the candidates and their political parties could not be more opposite. Abortion, gun laws, climate, immigration, LGBTQ+ rights–these and other major issues will determine life in America for the foreseeable future.
OUR PREDICTION:
- ELECTORAL VOTE: HARRIS 320 TRUMP 218
- POPULAR VOTE: HARRIS: 85.5 MILLION TRUMP: 72.5 MILLION
THIS PREDICTION ASSUMES:
- ALL REGISTERED VOTERS ACTUALLY CAST A BALLOT
- ABOUT 3 MILLION 2020 GOP VOTERS WILL SWITCH TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC
- TRUMP WILL GAIN ONLY ABOUT A MILLION NEW VOTERS FROM FIRST-TIME VOTERS
- A NUMBER OF “RED” STATES WILL TURN “BLUE” OVER THE ABORTION ISSUE
We believe that the above electoral and popular vote counts are possibly conservative–meaning the results could be much more in favor of Democrats largely due to the abortion issue. IF enough men support their partners who are of child-bearing age and IF others sympathize with the plight of women in general due to a possible abortion ban–the margin of Democratic victory will be much bigger. The statistical fact that the GOP has taken the minority view on ALL MAJOR ISSUES seals their fate.
The fallout from the Trump loss will be interesting. We predict the GOP will abandon Trump (and probably Vance) and begin to re-build as they prep for 2028. We also predict that the GOP position on all major issues will change–resulting in “pro-choice” legislation at the national level and a shift in positions on gun laws, climate and immigration. This election will teach the GOP that a political party cannot oppose majority views on ALL significant issues in a democracy and win elections. We believe that the GOP leadership should have realized that as a strategy on January 7, 2021 and flushed Trump then. That would have allowed them to re-boot for 2024 and softened their positions on key issues. Instead they worshipped at the Trump altar and threw away integrity, honesty, common sense, fairness–and, of course, the 2024 election. There are two really long term consequences of the GOP actions: (1) unless Kamala Harris falters in 2024-2028, anyone the GOP supports in 2028 will probably be a sacrificial lamb with little chance of being elected; and (2) if the “down ballot” races reflect the negativity Trump has generated the US Congress will have a clear and dominating Democratic influence for a long while. This can be a concern–depending on how the Dems exercise power.
IF WE HAVE A REAL DEMOCRACY AND IF REASONABLE PEOPLE STILL REPRESENT THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS IN AMERICA, THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD THE WORLD TOWARD A BETTER TOMORROW. THE LESSONS WE HAVE LEARNED FROM THIS CAMPAIGN WILL STRENGTHEN AND GUIDE TODAY’S GENERATIONS ON THE IMPORTANCE OF INFORMED VOTING FOR MANY YEARS TO COME. GOOD LUCK TO US ALL. REMEMBER TO VOTE!!!
Comments are closed