Check our previous post…we said there would not be a government shutdown. The GOP has too much to lose. Their voter base is already shrinking because Republicans have chosen the minority position on every key issue (abortion, gun laws, climate change, LGBTQ+, etc.). If they get blamed for the shutdown they risk losing millions of additional votes because people won’t get paychecks. And let’s not forget the GOP mega donor’s plight. The more money you have the more money you could lose. Think mega donor investments and what will happen in the stock market if we shut down, the market plummets and the US dollar takes a “hit”. We’re talking a huge potential loss for Koch, Murdoch and others. That will cost the GOP 2024 campaign dollars so-by orchestrating a shutdown–the GOP is shooting itself in the foot. Conclusion: NO SHUTDOWN. Now for the next step…Matt Gaetz has a real problem. If he tries to oust Speaker McCarthy the GOP will need to elect a new Speaker. The MAGA nut troop will offer a candidate who will undoubtedly NOT win the job…too many reasonable Republicans know that would be a huge mistake. So other “moderates” within the Party will be nominated. But without MAGA support the GOP has no hope of electing a replacement for McCarthy. (Remember how many times the GOP had to vote before McCarthy was selected?) So, the Dems will quietly choose their best GOP alternative, make a “deal” with that individual and throw all their votes behind their choice…and he/she will win. That is a huge win for the American people because it assures a more compromising climate in Congress and a certain death spiral for the Gaetz-Greene lunatic fringe. They will finally be flushed into oblivion. Soon after the dust settles, House Dems will draft an aid bill for Ukraine and it will pass with Speaker support and bi-partisan agreement. In 45 days–when this interim funding bill expires-it will be easier to negotiate a longer term funding compromise because the same problems will still exist for the GOP–loss of votes and mega donor reaction. Stay tuned and watch how democracy heals itself. And don’t be surprised if McCarthy retains his Speaker role but this time he will be more attuned to the common ground view than fearful of MAGA retaliation.
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