For many months we’ve been told that recession was probable in 2022 or 2023. Even Kiplinger forecasts have provided Gross Domestic Product estimates based on “without a recession” and “with a recession”. Well folks, it hasn’t happened and probably won’t for the foreseeable future. Our reasoning is that, despite gloomy skies, the economy has continued to grow jobs. Last month, 209,000 new jobs were created. And the unemployment rate was reported at 3.6%–a positive sign that economists accept as “full employment”. We said in a previous post many months ago that recession was improbable. You need to understand that the danger of a recession is an economic contraction that causes worker layoffs and a general shrinkage of GDP. Neither of those events happened. The slingshot impact of exiting COVID has propelled the economy into sustainable gains. The proof is job growth. What is particularly gratifying is that all this economic activity was accomplished as inflation was cut from 6% to 3%. Our only real concern at this point is the continued loss of manufacturing jobs. We’ll cover that in another post.
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