I know you’re probably tired of seeing COVID comments but this is a slightly different angle. One of the overriding impacts of the pandemic is economic depression. And whenever the economy is depressed, state revenue suffers. While we slowly trend toward re-opening businesses, schools, recreational venues and other sites, states will very slowly begin to recover financial footing. This leads me to predict that states will look for additional ways to refill their treasuries. The most obvious avenues are gambling and marijuana. Taxing in both of these “industries” will provide an enormous windfall on a soft tax basis. Individuals will spend dollars; companies will make profits; and states will tax those profits. Each state will evaluate what these two “opportunities” have done in neighboring states and ask “why not here?” Like water seeking it’s own level, each state legislature will measure its’ citizens (read “voter base”) to determine their tolerance level for gambling and MJ. Initially, conservative states will try to limit both issues; but even temporary hesitation will fail. Those states that defer legalized gambling and open access to MJ will see their residents simply go to another state and take their money with them. Eventually we will have a much wider doorway because each state will need to compete for those dollars. Please understand, I am not promoting either gambling or MJ use. I’m simply predicting that desperation will overwhelm any moral reservations at the state level. Just as the national lotteries took a while to be accepted, casino gambling, slot machines in other venues and recreational MJ will be wide-spread. Keep in mind that the Federal Government is also experiencing financial losses so the prospect of a state receiving federal loans or grants is very unlikely in the foreseeable future. And our American society will continue to evolve.
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